Eight questions
The Trader
The crowd is the signal
You meet a new technology by watching what other people do with it. Volume, funding rates, fear and greed, the gap between the announcement and the reaction: that is your information. You know that in the short run the market is a voting machine, and you like to count the votes.
Worth knowing: Your blind spot is the mechanism. A trade that works for a month and a technology that works for a decade look identical on a chart until the month ends. Read one explainer for every ten charts, and never size a position on a story you could not explain to the Skeptic.
For your type
Where to go next
Markets
Cycles
The anatomy of a crypto cycle
Four boom and bust cycles have produced a folk model with real predictive claims. Some of it holds up. The parts that do not are the parts people bet on.
Tokens & Crypto
Spot ETFs
The wrapper that changed the buyer
Spot Bitcoin ETFs did not change what bitcoin is. They changed who is allowed to own it, and that turned out to matter more.
Markets
Concentration
When an index becomes one trade
A handful of companies now make up an unprecedented share of the American stock market, and most of them are exposed to the same spending cycle. That is the real risk, not the valuations.
Tools
Tools for you
Coins, gold, currencies
Live Converter
Convert any amount between the coins on the markets page, gold and silver by the ounce or the gram, and dollars, euros, pounds and francs, at the prices this site shows right now..
OpenBitcoin, gold, stocks, cash
Hedge Mix
Mix bitcoin, gold, a stock index and cash with four sliders and see the expected return, the volatility and an illustrative worst year of the mix, under assumptions you can edit..
OpenHashrate, power, price
Mining Profitability
Daily bitcoin revenue, electricity cost and margin for any miner, from a single machine to a container, at the live bitcoin price and the network hashrate you enter..
OpenBasics
Start with these
What is a layer 2?
A second network that does the work and posts the result to the main chain, so you get the main chain’s security at a fraction of the fee.
02What is DeFi?
Lending, trading and derivatives rebuilt as programs that run on a blockchain. No company holds your money, and no company can help you either.